What the 50% and 10% dates mean
A frost date is not a promise; it is a probability. Each date above comes from 30 years of nightly low temperatures at the weather station nearest your ZIP code.
- Average last frost (50%). In half of years the last spring frost came after this date, and in half it came before. This is the date most seed packets and planting guides count from.
- Safe date (10%). Only 1 year in 10 had a frost after this date. It is usually two to three weeks later than the average date. If you want to plant tomatoes once and not worry, plant after this one.
- Average first fall frost (50%). Half of years had their first fall frost by this date.
- Early date (10%). Only 1 year in 10 had a frost before this date. Plan to have tender crops picked, or covers ready, from here on.
The year chart shows the same thing as a picture. The dark blue stretch is the frost season between the two average dates. The pale blue zones on either side are the risky weeks, when frost comes in some years and not others. The green stretch is frost-free in nine years out of ten.
How to use your frost dates
Almost every planting time is counted from these two dates. Hardy crops such as peas and spinach go in four to six weeks before the last spring frost. Tomatoes and peppers are started indoors six to ten weeks before it and planted out one to four weeks after. Fall crops count backward from the first fall frost: broccoli and cabbage go in 10 to 14 weeks before it, so they mature in cool weather.
Frost is not the only signal for warm-season crops. Beans rot and peppers sulk in cold soil even after the frosts have stopped, so we also show when your normal daily average temperature reaches 60°F. You don’t need to do the arithmetic: the planting calendar turns these dates into sowing and planting windows for every crop, and the seed starting calculator tells you when to start each seed indoors.
Where the numbers come from
The dates come from the NOAA U.S. Climate Normals for 1991–2020, the official 30-year averages published by the National Centers for Environmental Information. NOAA calculates the probability of the first and last 32°F night for each station. We match your ZIP code to the nearest of 7,305 stations with those figures, measured from the center of the ZIP code area, and show you the station name and how far away it is.
If your ZIP code is a PO box or business ZIP with no map area of its own, we use the nearest ZIP code that has one and tell you which. If the station has no usable frost dates, we explain why instead of showing a broken chart.
Why your garden may differ
A station a few miles away is a good guide, not a guarantee. Gardens can be a week or two off in either direction:
- Elevation. Air cools by roughly 3.5°F for every 1,000 feet you climb. In the mountains, a station in the valley town and a garden up the hill can have very different seasons.
- Low spots. On clear, still nights cold air drains downhill and pools in hollows and valley floors. A garden at the bottom of a slope can get frost when the slope above stays clear.
- Coasts and big lakes. Water warms and cools slowly, so places near it usually have later fall frosts and a longer season than places a few miles inland.
- Cities. Pavement and buildings hold heat overnight. A garden in town often frosts later than a station at a rural airport.
- Distance. If the station is more than about 25 miles away, or across a ridge, check a neighboring ZIP code or ask local gardeners.
Keep notes for a few years. If your garden reliably frosts a week after the station, shift every date a week.
Protecting plants from a late or early frost
- Watch the forecast in the risky weeks. Clear skies, no wind and a forecast low in the mid-30s are the classic frost recipe.
- Cover plants in the evening with frost cloth, old sheets or buckets, reaching to the ground to trap the soil’s warmth. Take covers off in the morning. Plastic touching the leaves gives little protection.
- Water dry soil during the day before a frost. Moist soil holds and releases more heat than dry soil.
- Bring containers in or group them against a south-facing wall.
- Harvest first in fall: pick tomatoes, peppers, beans and basil before the first frost night. Kale, Brussels sprouts and other hardy crops can stay; light frosts sweeten them.